Christmas ‘flu

Christmas without ‘flu? No problem, let’s create it!

This is not exactly what the Dutch scientists had in mind but, even so, it is a first from several points of view and is causing a stir in the scientific world today. Research carried out jointly by the USA and Holland, led by the virology team run by Ron Fouchier, at the Rotterdam Erasmus Medical Center, has succeeded in creating by genetic manipulation an influenza H5N1 virus which is the most virulent the world has ever known. Although the 1918 Spanish influenza H1N1 virus was considered to be an accident in the history of influenza pandemics because of its unprecedented dangerousness, only 1 to 2% of the people infected died. It had a major impact, in comparison with the mortality of 1 in 1000 of seasonal influenza viruses, but this cannot be compared with the effects of the mutant H5N1 virus created in Rotterdam that is aerosol transmissible. This H5N1 virus – in its natural avian form transmitted from birds to humans rather than between humans – has killed half its human victims since 2003.

How did Ron Fouchier and his colleagues set about it? They gave some information about it at a conference in Malta last September, explaining that it had not been very complicated, that only a few mutations were required to make the virus transmissible through the air from ferret to ferret, these rodents being considered one of the best animal models for studying human influenza (press release by the Erasmus Medical Center last November). Apparently not much more will become known as advisers to the North American government that co-financed this research, urged Science and Nature not to publish the details of these experiments, as they were intending to do. Both scientific journals agreed, for biosecurity reasons, to accept this form of scientific censorship in peace time, unprecedented in contemporary scientific history. However, a recent article published by the New York Times on 26 December 2011 shows that there is still controversy in the scientific community about this experiment which some people consider should never have been financed or undertaken (Richard H. Ebright, bioweapons expert at Rutgers University is quoted as saying that this virus will “inevitably escape, and within a decade”, adding that security measures like restricting possession of the virus to fewer scientists and fewer laboratories would lower the chances of that happening so soon). Other scientists such as Richard Webby, of St Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, consider that Dr. Fouchier’s research was useful, with the potential to answer major questions about ‘flu viruses, like what makes them transmissible and how some that appear to infect only animals can suddenly invade humans as well. It must be acknowledged that Fouchier had never agreed with influenza experts (of whom I am one, as is New York virologist, Peter Palese), who claimed that the H5N1 virus could not be transmitted from human to human through the air. He wanted, therefore, to carry out an experiment to demonstrate that a few carefully selected mutations would enable airborne transmission and would confront the scientific and public health community with the potential risk that the H5N1 virus could develop naturally into a dangerous virus that could spread among humans.

We have clearly not heard the last of this and controversy in scientific circles is likely to continue.