Can the international economic crisis that we are witnessing be likened to the rapid spread of an infectious virus within a given population? I should like to draw a few parallels and suggest that theses could be used as a means for managing the crisis. Much can often be learned from other fields and man may not have a very long experience of economic globalisation but he does have many hundreds of years of experience of dealing with epidemics. We have been able to deal with and learn from past crises: for example we have recently seen the international campaign co-ordinated by the World Health Organisation in the highly effective fight against the SARS virus in 2003, and currently the action taken by the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) to combat bird flu.
Points in common : The onset of circumscribed sub prime home loans (in the USA), the infamous sub prime crisis, difficult to understand, a “new strain” not previously known to economic virology. The emergence was unexpected and then the situation deteriorated rapidly, with a high level of contagion propagating across the Atlantic and throughout the world. The contagion was apparently uncontrollable and aroused fear, too, including irrational fear. Even though some experts affirm that the situation in Europe is healthy, they do not convince the small and large carriers of the contagion who do not appear to believe them (their behaviour clearly shows this). Confidence dwindles, in particular confidence in the authorities. People no longer believe the reassuring words which sound like an incantation. Measures are finally taken: at first every man for himself – “my Tamiflu stocks” become “my liquidity injections” (even the language is similar, medicaments are injected into the patients). Then the awareness – confused because experience is far more recent – that concerted action with neighbours is required, possibly at regional level (Europe, the USA), not yet world-wide: but what action does the World Trade Organisation take? Isn’t finance one of its prerogatives? Isn’t this its sector?
An epidemiologist’s point of view
1. Simulating the impact of the scenarios envisaged by economists. Mathematicians to the rescue! The characteristics of epidemics are modelled mathematically to give a simplified representation so that these artificial models can be used to test scenarios by computer: “what effect would closing schools have on the pandemic?”, “What would happen if air transport were stopped?”, “What about vaccinating a whole section of the population?” “What about using face masks?” etc. When there was a widespread outbreak of foot and mouth in the United Kingdom, epidemiologists simulated various strategies and this was very useful aid to taking decisions on how best to deal with the situation. Perhaps the mathematicians in economics schools are studying the current situation and shedding light on it for decision-makers. The various proposals being discussed should be simulated: European funds vs every man for himself, injection of liquidities vs leave well alone, etc. The results of these simulations should be made public, to prevent fear, rumour and irrational behaviour that can amplify the problem (or cause speculation).
2. The solution must be international and concerted. The solution must probably be global, if the analogy with the flu pandemic is taken to its logical conclusion. As after the great flu pandemic of 1918-19, it will end by setting up an international financial regulation body that does not exist on the earth (or which exists but is visibly lacking or ineffective). The WHO was set up in 1947. Too many people suffer in these crises, and if a parallel is drawn with transmissible diseases, it will be the weakest who suffer most in the current economic crisis. It is the poorest countries who suffer most, immediately and even in the long term.
On 21 October, EPIDEMIK, a large exhibition on epidemics of infectious diseases, opened in the Cité des Sciences et de l’Industrie, in Paris. The National School of Public Health is an active partner. Visitors will be confronted with scenarios of epidemics simulated in completely new video games. What is the betting that our great ministers of finance and all those who currently are called upon to take very difficult decisions in a highly uncertain, immensely complex situation could perhaps find analogies that they could use to help them make up their minds?
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